Bookmakers Ignore Irish Edge

Fifa’s football world rankings are often mocked but can they point us towards value in the World Cup Qualifiers?

To put this to the test we have pitted Fifa against the bookmakers, using the European section of the World Cup Qualifiers as our sample.

The following table compares Fifa’s world rankings. A positive number in the difference tab means the home team are the higher ranked country and a negative number means the away team are the higher ranked nation.

All odds used are in decimal format.

Republic of Ireland to win
There are nine countries with home ties against lower ranked oppositions, eight of them are odds-on to win. The exception are the Republic of Ireland, but why?

Giovanni Trappatoni’s team are 39 places higher than Austria and are level on seven points in Group C despite the tougher fixture list. The Republic of Ireland earned a creditable draw away to Sweden on Friday, whereas Austria have only beaten the minnows in the group; the Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan.
Republic of Ireland to beat Austria at 6/5 (William Hill)

Hungary for success
Perhaps the biggest disparity between Fifa’s world rankings and bookmaker opinion is found in the Turkey v Hungary game.

Turkey are the 7/10 (Bet365) favourites to win the match although they are actually 13 places below Hungary in the world rankings. Home advantage has an influence on the price but the bookmakers have written off the Hungarians too quickly.

Sándor Egervári’s team have been on the up for several years and only a stoppage time equaliser prevented them from taking maximum points against Romania on Friday.

Back in October, Hungary won the reverse of this fixture 3-1 and they are overpriced to do the double over Turkey.
Hungary to beat Turkey at 9/2 (Bet365)