Bayern Munich v Barcelona Tip

At first glance the sight of Barcelona at 13/5 (BetVictor) to win the first leg of this Champions League semi-final looks irresistible, but actually the bookies are quite right to make Bayern Munich strong favourites at the Allianz Arena (13/10 PaddyPower).

The Germans have been almost unstoppable on their own patch having won 17 of their last 20 Champions League clashes in front of their own fans. The Spanish superstars have in contrast only won one of their last five matches in this competition including home and away.

The comparative performances of these titans since we entered the knockout phases is interesting. Bayern stormed into an almost unassailable 3-1 lead against Arsenal in the last 16 before the Gunners gave them a fright in the return leg. It looked like Jupp Heynckes’ boys were guilty of a touch of complacency, but they got through.

However, they made no such mistake in the quarter-final tie with Juventus, emerging as 4-0 aggregate winners in perhaps the standout result of the season in the Champions League. The Italians have been a class apart in Serie A, and were also unbeaten in Europe prior to two comprehensive 2-0 defeats against the new Bundesliga champions.

Yet where Bayern have progressed in style, Barcelona have most certainly laboured their way to the last four. First there was the shock 2-0 defeat for the Catalans away to AC Milan in the last 16 which needed a huge effort to overcome at the Nou Camp.

Then they stared down the barrel of elimination yet again in the quarter-finals. They finally squeezed through on away goals against PSG but only after the French side had given La Liga’s finest a major scare. Tito Vilanova’s troops were on their way out with just 19 minutes remaining.

Barcelona have already lost away to Celtic and Milan - Bayern are a significant step up even from there. I think Messi and co will keep the tie in the balance but a 2-1 victory for the hosts on Tuesday looks about right at best odds of 19/2 with BetVictor.