Ajax v Borussia Dortmund Tip: Draw

We are at the stage of the Champions League where teams know what results they need to qualify for the knock-out stages and that must affect their tactics. Borussia Dortmund travel to Amsterdam knowing a draw will see them qualify for the next stage, a result that would also help the Dutch side in their pursuit of Europa League football.

The bookmakers have priced Borussia Dortmund as 10/11 (Paddy Power) favourites, a fair reflection of the gulf in class between the teams, but not the situation. If the teams are level with 15 minutes to go I doubt Jürgen Klopp will be encouraging his team to attack, he will make sure they don’t lose the game.

The same mindset works in our favour even if Dortmund take the lead. I doubt they will be looking to extend their advantage, more likely they will sit back and try to protect a lead, thus inviting pressure from the opposition. At 29/10 (BetVictor) a draw suits all parties and looks the value bet.