Women's US Open Final Tip

The bookies decided a long time ago that Serena Williams has the US Open in the bag and she lines up as a remarkable 1/6 (Bet365) favourite against the world number one Victoria Azarenka (9/2 PaddyPower).

Given the American’s dominance throughout this tournament, and indeed the whole summer, it’s very hard to make the case for the upset. That feeling is compounded by a quick look at the head-to-head stats which shows Williams 9-1 in front.

So if we rule out an Azarenka victory, there are only two set betting options; Williams to win 2-0 (4/7 StanJames) or Williams to win 2-1 (7/2 Sportingbet). The latter option has all the value if we can make a case for the Belarusian taking Serena to a decider, which I believe we can.

First of all, Azarenka is currently world number one for a reason. She has been the most consistent performer in women’s tennis over the last year. Here, she has shown tremendous grit to beat defending champion Stosur in three quarter final sets before coming from behind to defeat Sharapova in the semis.

Williams has had no such difficulties, but then again she hasn’t faced any of the top nine seeds en route to the final. That can be a poisoned chalice when you suddenly face the top seed when the prize is on the line.

And that’s another thing. Serena hasn’t won here since 2008 and that will play on her mind however much she may deny it. There were ugly scenes in defeat in 2009 and 2011 and she has a score to settle. At the top of her game, I think she will, but it may not be as easy as many expect.