Wimbledon Tip: Sharapova V Lisicki

In a match with an overwhelming favourite, it becomes difficult to follow the form and still find value. After some digging around the various markets, that value has been found in the double fault market. The 11/10 skybet offer on Sabine Lisicki serving more double faults than her illustrious opponent is surprisingly generous considering that the wildcard entry has never played a match of this stature before.

The bookies have presumably taken a look at the tournament stats and seen that Sharapova has been inferior to the German when it comes to the service statistics. This is true and the world number 62’s total off 44 aces has been particularly impressive - the Russian has claimed only 19. Admittedly Sharapova has also had the worst of the double faults thus far but there is reason to think that will all change in the semi-final.

Firstly, the 2004 champion only gifted one point off an errant second serve in her quarter-final match against Dominika Cibulkova - a significant improvement on all the previous rounds when she had always thrown in at least four. The big cause of this improvement is easily identified. Sharapova’s percentage of first serves in rose to a remarkable 76, miles better than previous rounds. The pressure on the second serve was therefore eased considerably. Lisicki, for all her excellence on serve, has not been over 60% for first serves in since the second round.

It will only get tougher for the 21-year-old German to find the target with both serves when confronted by a ferocious returner such as she will see down the far end on Thursday afternoon. The pressure of playing the biggest match of your career on Centre Court is unlikely to improve accuracy. To get better than evens odds on the underdog serving more double faults than her famed opponent is therefore great value.