Wimbledon Tip: Nadal V Murray

We’ve been here before. Rafa Nadal has been the man to deny Andy Murray a shot at a Grand Slam title on four occasions, including twice on the grass of Wimbledon. Only last year the British public had its hopes swiftly banished in a semi-final yet again as the eventual champion won 6-4 7-6 6-4. It was even more convincing in the quarter-finals of 2008 when the Spaniard crushed Murray 6-3 6-2 6-4 on the way to his first title in SW19.

But there are genuine reasons for optimism within the Scot’s camp this time round. Firstly, Murray has beaten the Spaniard on several occasions - he is 11-5 down overall. His best result was probably in the 2008 US Open when the recently crowned Wimbledon champion was dispatched 6-2 7-6 4-6 6-4. Murray also triumphed 6-4 6-4 in the ATP of Toronto and ran Nadal incredibly close on the London O2 hard courts in 2010.

Based on form in this tournament there is nothing between the two men. The French Open champion has dropped a set in both of the last two rounds but faced tough opponents in the form of Juan Martin Del Potro and Mardy Fish. The draw has probably been kinder to Murray but his recent straight-sets progress has been impressive nonetheless. Crucially, his serve has been dominant with 85% of points won on the first in the quarter-finals. The only cause for concern is that only 56% of those first serves went in during that match. Against Rafa Nadal that won’t be good enough - the 10-time Slam winner has never drifted below 67% in that department, and that was in round one.

Expect Murray to come closer to defeating Nadal at Wimbledon that ever before. He is in better touch than heading into previous meetings on grass but the fact remains that the Spaniard hasn’t lost here since 2007. With that in mind, and with worries about the Murray first serve percentage, I’m backing Nadal to win a five-set classic at odds of 6/1 with skybet.