Wimbledon Tip: Williams v Kvitova

Serena Williams has emerged as a rather dubious Wimbledon favourite (13/5 Bet365) after Maria Sharapova crashed out on Monday afternoon. The American is the shortest price because of her history at the All-England Club, but the four-time champion has offered scant reason to think she will add to that tally in 2012.

Williams has had to fight doggedly just to stay in the tournament this long. The 6-7 6-2 9-7 win over Zheng was an epic survival mission and the 6-1 2-6 7-5 victory over Shvedova was another nerve-jangler.

With all due respect to those two, the 30-year-old has yet to face anybody of the calibre of today’s opponent, the defending champion Petra Kvitova. Currently ranked number four in the world, two places above Serena, the 22-year-old has already followed her 2011 Centre Court triumph with personal best showings at the Australian and French Opens this year.

But the Czech star is surely at her best on grass. The same can traditionally be said of Williams, but we haven’t seen her best since at least 2010.

Compared to her upcoming opponent, Kvitova has enjoyed a pretty comfortable campaign at SW19 so far. The early rounds were negotiated without dropping a set with Lepchenko winning just one game in round three while Zheng was taking Serena the distance. The Czech finally met some resistance in round four when Shiavone grabbed the first set. But the champion responded well, showing her quality in the end by taking a decider 6-1.

Serena is 8/13 (PaddyPower) to reach the semis primarily because of history. But times change and Kvitova is definite value at a best price of 6/4 (Sportingbet) to continue her title defence at least a little longer.