Wimbledon Tip: Rafael Nadal to beat Gilles Muller.

Let us state the obvious - Rafa Nadal is going to win the match; he hasn’t lost at Wimbledon since 2007 and is 1/66. What isn’t so well publicised is that he can labour through his early matches.

The world number one broke onto the grass scene in 2006 and in his four visits to Wimbledon since he has always reached the final. With seeds only scheduled to meet in the fourth round you would think the early matches are a breeze. Think again.

From 2006 onwards these are the margins of victory achieved by Nadal in the first three rounds at Wimbledon:

3-0: Seven times
3-1: Once
3-2: Four times

In twelve matches the Spaniard has been taken to a deciding set four times. On average that is once every three rounds.

The biggest factor in this equation is his opponent. You need a player capable of matching Nadal for periods during the game. On Friday he plays Gilles Muller; the last man to beat him at Wimbledon who isn’t Roger Federer. A recent winner of a Challenger event in Nottingham, the world number 92 arrives in good form.

One of the few players to have enjoyed a win over the Wimbledon champion, Muller could be a troublesome opponent. It is a big stretch for him to cause another shock, but do not be surprised if he forces the game into a decider. At 22/1 that is where the value lies.