French Open Tip: Without the 'Big Two'

The British tennis media seem to be getting a little excited about Andy Murray’s chances at Roland Garros despite the fact he has only even made the quarter final stage in Paris on one previous occasion. It is true that his performance in the Rome Masters where he narrowly lost to Novak Djokovic was a considerable step in the right direction. However, the praise may have been particularly fulsome for Murray simply because his form before that was so dismal. The Scot’s draw for the French Open looks kind and the 4/1 available on Murray to win excluding Nadal and Djokovic looks ok. That said, the value really lies in picking one of the world number four’s potential opponents.

Nicolas Almagro is 20/1 to win without the ‘big two’ included. Progress to the semi-final could well win us our bet in this market and the 25-year-old Spaniard is well-equipped to have a good run at that. He has two quarter-final appearances to his name already from 2008 and 2010; both times he was only stopped by eventual champion Rafa Nadal. The draw this year means that Almagro would be assured of avoiding Nadal, Djokovic and Federer before the semi-final stages. This is is the same reason why British pundits are getting exciting about Murray, and Almagro could well meet the Dunblane star in the last eight.

Ranked number 12 in the world, Almagro would have nothing to fear having beaten Murray in this very tournament in 2008. Very much a clay court specialist, he has just won his third title of the year in Nice, as always on the red dirt. Almagro is an offensive baseliner and his groundstrokes, particularly on the forehand side, are very powerful. His quick and compact service style yielded 78 French Open aces in 2008 - the most of any player in the tournament.

On form, at home on clay and with a kind draw, he oozes value. Avoid the devalued patriotic bet and take Nicolas Almagro at 20/1 with StanJames to win the French Open w/o Nadal and Djokovic.