22nd Apr 2013 | Horse Racing
Windsor Draw Bias: 6f
We examine the draw bias on Windsor’s 6f track.
Track: Windsor
Distance: 6f
Stalls: Low
Summary: Advantage being drawn high.
Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0
To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.
Conclusion: Horses drawn high, in stall 12 or above have an advantage. Traditionally the far rail was thought to be advantageous only in soft ground, but the data suggest the bias exists on all types of going.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 12:54 22nd Apr, 2013 but subject to change