Welsh National Tips: Monbeg Dude

The rearranged Welsh National takes place at 3.20 Chepstow and with the going described as ‘heavy’ it could turn into a real slog. The Going Stick reading is currently 3.3, the lowest ever recorded at the track since records began in April 2007.

In such testing conditions weight could have a larger than usual impact, therefore I’m drawn to horses at the bottom of the handicap. Carrying just 10-1, Monbeg Dude is nicely weighted and he could be a horse on the upgrade.

On his last start, he won a valuable Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham in soft ground and although he has an extra 2f to tackle, at least he is proven in testing conditions. Having only his sixth start over fences there should also be some improvement in him.

Paul Carberry travels over from Ireland for his only ride of the day and I doubt he’d have made the trip if he didn’t stand a chance of winning. At 12/1 (Bet365) he looks the value in the race, backing him each-way and get ¼ odds for a top-4 finish.

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