7th Oct 2013 | Horse Racing
Track Pace Bias: 5f
We examine which racetracks around the country favour early speed.
One of the complexities of betting on British horse racing is the nature of the tracks. Every racecourse is different, with variations in the number of bends, inclines and the surface.
The aim of this investigation is to ascertain whether some tracks favour early pace more than others.
We have examined all 5f races on every UK track from 2000 to 2012, recording the number of horses who ‘made all’. The simple theory being the higher percentage of horses that ‘make all’ the more the track favours early speed.
Percentage of horses that have Made All over 5f.
The five furlong tracks at Chester and Kempton have the highest percentage of runners that ‘make all’ to win the race. This seems a logical result because both are turning tracks with relatively short home-straights.
A much lower percentage of runners make all on straight tracks like Doncaster and York. There might be a slipstreaming effect, which means horses racing in the pack conserve energy compared to the front-runner, or the larger field sizes create more pace duel scenarios that harm the front-runners.
This simple pace analysis provides a starting point for discussion rather than an end-game solution but it is worth bearing in mind inherent track biases when studying the form.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 10:46 7th Oct, 2013 but subject to change