King’s Stand Preview

Apart from the foreign raiders Shea Shea and Shameexpress, the King’s Stand form boils down to two races at Haydock this season. The main British and Irish challengers ran at the track and therefore we can compare the sectional timings they clocked.

Haydock Sectionals

Medicean Man (Achilles Stakes 2013)
First 3f: 56.0%
Last 2f: 44.0%
Betting Bias Speed Rating: 74

Kingsgate Native (Temple Stakes 2013)
First 3f: 57.9%
Last 2f: 42.1%
Betting Bias Speed Rating: 67

Bated Breath (Temple Stakes 2012)
First 3f: 59.6%
Last 2f: 40.4%
Betting Bias Speed Rating: 78

*Sectionals displayed as % of overall time

Using sectional timings from the trials at Haydock, including last year’s Temple Stakes for comparative purposes, some interesting data is returned. The key is to focus on the ‘% of overall time’ figure, i.e. how quick the start and the end of the race was run as a percentage of the overall time.

Medicean Man’s win was achieved in a quick/slow split; the early pace of the race was very strong, the front-runners couldn’t sustain the gallop and the hold-up horses benefited. The overall speed rating of 74 (where one point = one length) was good.

Bated Breath’s 2011 Temple Stakes win was achieved in a slow/quick split. The early pace was moderate but Bated Breath (and Sole Power the runner-up) ran a phenomenally fast final 2f to achieve a fast overall time. The fact that Bated Breath and Sole Power pulled 3.5 lengths clear of the third horse confirmed their exceptional performances.

Now comes the problem with Kingsgate Native’s win. The race seems to have been run at a consistent pace; somewhere in between Medicean Man’s quick/slow and Bated Breath’s slow/quick pace. However, the overall time Kingsgate Native clocked (accounting for going variance) was poor, on my ratings it was 7 lengths slower than Medicean Man’s win and 11 lengths worse than Bated Breath’s 2011 win at the same track.

A medium gallop through the race should have generated a quicker time than the one we got. That leaves a question mark against the runners. Why did Kingsgate Native, Swiss Spirit, Reckless Abandon, Sole Power and Spirit Quartz all run so slowly?