A Drop In The Oisin

Apprentice jockey Oisin Murphy enjoyed a wonderful Saturday winning four races at Ayr, including the valuable Ayr Gold Cup.

The racing press were quick to proclaim the 18-year-old as a star for the future, but was his four-timer just the proverbial buses all coming along at once?

Leading Apprentice Jockey 2013

Source: www.flatstats.co.uk
(data excludes apprentice races)

To rate jockey performance I have focused on actual winners / expected winners (A/E).

This takes into account the quality of the horse by assuming its probability of winning is equal to its SP. A jockey with an A/E > 1 means they are winning more races than the market expects.

Even taking into account Oisin Murphy’s four-timer he only ranks fifth for A/E. His exploits at Ayr were impressive but there are other apprentices doing equally well, if not better.

Leading Flat Jockeys 2013

Oisin Murphy looks good when placed amongst the leading flat jockeys but the devil is in the detail. A/E doesn’t take into account the inbuilt bookmaker margin of SPs (around 20%). Therefore, the more rides a jockey has, the more likely his A/E returns to the mean.

The future looks bright for Oisin Murphy but from a punting perspective there are other apprentices who offer similar value for their claims.