Lay of the Day: Kabbaas

With the stalls berthed on the inside of Lingfield’s 7f course you expect those drawn low, close to the rail, to have an advantage. That is not the case.

Since the start of 2012 there have been 101 races over course and distance, stalls 1-4 winning only 27 races, when the odds imply they should have won 45. That means horses drawn low are winning 60% of the number of races they should.

Kabbaas therefore might look well drawn in stall 4, but he isn’t.  He will need to run above his mark to compensate for the poor draw and that will be difficult carrying top weight.

At Kempton he looked short of pace and Lingfield’s sharp track won’t play to his strengths. His best two performances have come on the Fibresand at Southwell and it appears slower surfaces suit him best.