26th Jun 2013 | Horse Racing
Lay of the Day: Avon Breeze
A short priced favourite based on collateral form but poor value because the form line might not be as strong as it first appears.
A simple view of handicapping is that if horse A is beaten by horse B and horse B goes on to become quite good, then horse A must also be fairly handy. Unfortunately, form is never so straightforward.
On her last start, Avon Breeze finished 0.75 lengths behind Above Standard, who franked the form by winning his next start in a higher grade. The market suggests Avon Breeze is also on the upgrade but I would dispute that.
Avon Breeze finished 0.75 lengths ahead of Cocktail Charlie and Sunny Side Up neither of whom pulled up any trees on their next start. With just a little bit of digging, the form of the race starts to fall apart.
Above Standard was able to win again because he’s an unexposed sprinter, having won three out of four starts at his new discipline, whereas Avon Breeze is already starting to looked exposed.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 08:39 26th Jun, 2013 but subject to change