8th Apr 2011 | Grand National
Grand National Tip: Arbor Supreme
Only a length behind the National favourite, should reverse the form easily.
Trainer Willie Mullins arrives with a strong hand for the Grand National, including the favourite The Midnight Club. With all the focus on that horse, some of his other runners have been forgotten in the betting, where Arbor Supreme is now cracking value.
Both horses met in the BobbyJo chase in Ireland back in February, with The Midnight Club getting the upper hand by one length. There is good reason to think the form will be turned around.
Firstly both horses were racing off level weights. At Aintree Arbor Supreme is 10lbs better off, over 4m4f that should be enough to turn around a one length deficit. The second and more important factor is that he is a better stayer. If you watch the video of that Fairyhouse race, Arbor Supreme was four lengths down with two fences left to jump. He then cruised up to the leader and probably would have got past him in another furlong. Thankfully he did not, as otherwise we wouldn’t be getting odds of 20/1 today.
As an added bonus Arbor Supreme has run in the National before. Last year he was travelling beautifully before unseating at the Chair. That is a forgivable error and if he puts the experience to good use, he could run a huge race.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 10:04 8th Apr, 2011 but subject to change
