Goodwood Draw Bias: 5f

Track: Goodwood
Distance: 5f
Stalls: High

Summary: Disadvantage being drawn high, against the stand’s rail.

On Goodwood’s straight course the stalls are usually positioned against the stand’s rail.

To overcome this problem we have called the highest stall (nearest the stand’s rail) stall ‘0’. From there we work across the track from highest to lowest. The bigger the minus number, the further away you are from the stand’s rail. e.g in a 10-runner race, stall 10 is against the stand’s rail and denoted as stall ‘0’.

Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2003 to 2012)

Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0

To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.

Conclusion: Racing tight against the stand’s running rail is not the place to be. The highest four stalls win only 60% of the races they should. Being drawn nearer the centre of the track is an advantage.

During Glorious Goodwood there are often 20+ runners in 5f races. Because of the small sample size, they have not been included in the graph but a low draw (far side) enjoys the same advantage as the middle of the track.