Ebor Trends

The Betfred Ebor (3.50 York) is the most valuable handicap in Europe but with over 20 runners it is not an easy puzzle to solve. In an effort to find an edge we have looked for trends that have outperformed market expectations over the last 10 years.

Any trend with an actual/expected figure above 1, produces more winners than the market expects and is therefore a potentially profitable trend.

Weight
Runners carrying 9st or more: 0.70 (6-122)
Runners carrying less than 9st: 1.11 (3-43)

Trainers may attempt to hide the true ability of their horse from the handicapper to get a favourable low weight, however the Ebor market doesn’t seem to have adjusted for this.

Draw
Runners drawn in stalls 1-9: 0.18 (1-77)
Runners drawn in stall 10 or higher: 1.42 (8-89)

Only one winner has come from a single figure stall in the last 10 years, much lower than the market would have you think.

Age
Aged three to six: 0.83 (9-153)
Aged seven or older: 0.00 (0-12)

No horse aged seven or older has won the Ebor in the last 10 years but that doesn’t mean they should be ignored. Only 12 runners have fallen into this age bracket which is too small a sample size to draw any conclusions.

Horses that fit the positive trends
Ted Veale 8/1 Boylesports
Blue Surf 33/1 Boylesports
Hanoverian Baron 33/1 Boylesports
Highland Castle 33/1 Boylesports