6th Jun 2013 | Horse Racing
Chester Draw Bias: 6f
Analysis into the draw bias at the Chester six furlong track.
Track: Chester
Distance: 6f18y
Stalls: Inside
Summary: Stalls 1 and 2 enjoy a big advantage, winning 20% more often than expected.
Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2003 to 2012)
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0
To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.
Conclusion: Stalls 1 & 2 enjoy a big advantage because it allows runners to hug the inside rail and take the shortest route round the course. Starting in stall 5 or upwards is regarded as a negative.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:53 6th Jun, 2013 but subject to change