1st May 2013 | Horse Racing
Chester Draw Bias: 5 Furlongs
Analysis into the draw bias at Chester's five furlong track.
Track: Chester
Distance: 5 Furlongs
Stalls: Low
Summary: A low draw in stalls 1-4 is advantageous. A double figure draw is a big negative.
Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0
To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.
Conclusion: Stalls 1-4 produce more winners than expected, thereafter the wider your a drawn the worse your chances. No horse has won from a double digit draw in the last five years.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 10:22 1st May, 2013 but subject to change