Cesarewitch Trends

We have taken four common Cesarewitch trends and tested whether they highlight any value in the betting markets.

Using the last eight year’s worth of data we have compared actual wins versus expected wins (A/E), assuming the SP reflects the true chance of a horse winning.

Any A/E greater than 1 means the trend fitting horse wins more often than the market expects.

Must Carry 9st 1lb or less
Reasoning: The Cesarewitch is a handicap and there will be ‘plot’ horses lurking at the bottom of the handicap, the trainer having masked his/her true ability during the season. Secondly, the race is run over 2m2f therefore weight will have a greater effect slowing horses down.

Carrying 9st 1lb or less = 0.57 (5/211)
Carrying more than 9st 1lb = 1.31 (3/50)

Drawn in stall 12 or lower
Reasoning: A low draw is an advantage because it is the shortest way around the track and horses have the running rail to race against.

Drawn in stall 12 or lower = 1.26 (6/91)
Draw higher than stall 13 = 0.31 (2/170)

Run within last 60 days
Reasoning: Horses racing within the last 60 days have a fitness advantage over their rivals.

Run within last 60 days = 0.76 (6/204)
Running after a break of 60+ days = 0.63 (2/57)

Finished 4th or better on their last start
Reasoning: A horse needs to arrive in form to win the Cesarewitch.

4th of better last time out = 0.92 (7/137)
5th of lower last time out = 0.29 (1/123)

Summary
It is dangerous to be too dogmatic with trends with such a small sample set but there are a couple of interesting results. Firstly horses carrying more weight seem under bet, in a competitive race perhaps it pays to have a touch of class.

Secondly the draw is still a big issue, horses in the bottom half of the draw win more often than expected, even though this is a widely publicised trend.