20th May 2013 | Horse Racing
Brighton Draw Bias: 5 Furlongs
Analysis into the draw bias at Brighton’s five furlong track.
Track: Brighton
Distance: 5f39y
Stalls: Low
Summary: Being drawn in stalls 1 & 2 is a disadvantage.
Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0
To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.
Conclusion: In 35 races since 2008 no horse has won from stall 1 when there have been 8 or more runners.
Despite Brighton being a left-handed turning track, the inside stalls are a disadvantage over the minimum distance. This could be because it is difficult to get a clear run when held-up on the inside whereas those racing prominently to hold a position tire because of the uphill finish.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 16:56 20th May, 2013 but subject to change