Breeders Cup Betting: Day Two

Saturday night is the climax of racing at Churchill Downs with the Breeders Cup Classic closing the card. All the racing is broadcast live on At The Race - Sky channel 415.

18.02 Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Turf 1m
Alan McCabe saddles Gimcrack winner Caspar Netscher at 10/1 (Ladbrokes). If he were to win, it would be the trainer’s first Group One success, and double his yearly earnings. Stepping up in trip on yielding ground, there must be worries over his stamina. Fellow British raider Farraaj is 13/2 (Bet365) but looks much better suited. His breeding suggests he will improve for a step up to a mile and he is already a winner over seven furlongs.

Of the home challenge Shkspeare Shaliyah 14/1 (Boylesports)  showed he can handle cut in the ground when winning the Pilgrim Stakes at a soft Belmont Park. On Beyer ratings he still has a few pounds to find with the main protagonists, but he was only pushed out under hands and heels for his last two victories. It is unlikely we have seen the best of him. 

Selection: Shkspeare Shaliyah 14/1 (Boylesports)

20.45 Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Turf 1m4f
The Europeans dominate the race, providing the first five in the betting. Sarafina looks a worthy favourite at 11/4 (Stan James), with quick ground at Longchamp a valid excuse for her seventh place in the Arc. Churchill Downs has going described as yielding which should suit the French filly. The rain is bad news for Midday 6/1 (Ladbrokes), as it blunts her turn of foot as we saw in the Juddmonte International at York. St. Nicholas Abbey looks held by Sarafina and Sea Moon was slightly disappointing in the St. Leger.

Await The Dawn (8/1 with Ladbrokes) is the biggest worry for the favourite. Although well beaten in the Juddmonte he had a fever, which could excuse the poor performance. Previously he won two Group races with consummate ease. The Breeders’ Cup has been the long-term target and he might spring a small surprise.

Selection: Await The Dawn 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

22.07 TVG Breeders´ Cup Mile (Turf) 1m
Going for a record fourth Breeders’ Cup, Goldikova heads the betting at 2/1 with Stan James. Defeat at Longchamp by a head reads well when put into context. She was racing over an inadequate seven furlongs and has often used Longchamp as a prep for the Breeder’s Cup. It would be a fitting end to a fine career if she won.

Strong Suit (7/1 Ladbrokes) is the biggest danger according to the betting, but he is yet to win beyond seven furlongs. Everything else in the field looks held by the favourite. The heart says Goldikova but so does the head.

Selection: Goldikova 2/1 (Stan James)

23.00 Breeders´ Cup Classic (Dirt) 1m2f
Not the strongest Classic in Breeder’s Cup history and that is reflected in the wide open betting where Uncle Mo at 4/1 (Bet365) clings onto favouritism.

So You Think leads the charge for Europe, with Aiden O’Brien’s star 6/1 (Ladbrokes) in the betting. After successive defeats his trainer reaches for the blinkers, the first time he will have worn them since 2009. Racing on dirt could also be a worry but I think it will be the making of him. The deeper more galloping nature of the surface should suit the horse who has the engine to be effective over further than 1m2f, if the race turns into a real slog.

Of the home challenge, Flat Out 11/2 (Boylesports) looks a danger. He ran a big Beyer speed figure last time out over 10 furlongs and that extra furlong should see him turnaround the form with Havre De Grace. But it might not be enough to overcome So You Think.

Selection: So You Think 6/1 (Ladbrokes)