Dubai World Championship Golf Tips: Alvaro Quiros

The 2010 edition was a tournament I feel Alvaro Quiros should have won. He was tied for the lead going into the back nine but could not find enough birdies, eventually missing the playoff by one.

If you look at the statistics, they tell a story. These are the number of putts the top ten had over the course of four rounds.

Robert Karlsson – 116 putts
Ian Poulter - 114
Alvaro Quiros - 123
Lee Westwood - 115
Rory McIlroy - 114
Paul Casey - 116
Francesco Molinari - 118
Thongchai Jaidee - 109
Seung-yul Noh - 121
Luke Donald – 120

Excluding Quiros the top ten averaged 116 putts, the big hitting Spaniard therefore gave away at least seven shots on the greens. It is a measure of how well he played that he only finished one shot off the lead. Historically he isn’t a bad putter it was just one of those tournaments when nothing dropped.

Measuring over 7,600 yards, the Earth course is tailor made for the man who leads the tour in driving distance. With no trees to speak of, the desert does not carry the threat of more traditional courses. It is therefore no surprise that Quiros has a terrific record in the Gulf. Since 2009 his record in Abu Dhabi, Qatar and Dubai reads: 26-1-13-42-11-2-6-3-23-2-1.

There are no missed cuts and two wins - in the Qatar Masters, and this season’s Dubai Desert Classic. A record that looks even better when you consider he has finished in the top six, in five of his last six Gulf-based tournaments.

Recent form is also encouraging. A seventh place finish in Hong Kong was unexpected, being on a course that shouldn’t have suited him. It was a tournament he could have won but for a poor final round of 73.

Getting 40/1 (Bet365) on a golfer who is in good form and playing on a course perfect for his game looks great value. It seems so obvious I’m surprised more hasn’t be made of it. Back him each way with ¼ odds for a top five finish.