6th Jun 2012 | Formula 1
Canadian Grand Prix Tip: Michael Schumacher
Good results in qualifying should translate into points if avoiding misfortune.
If it wasn’t for bad luck, Michael Schumacher wouldn’t have any luck at all. Some of the mistakes have been his own doing but a return of 2 points from six races is less than he deserves.
He has outqualified teammate Nico Rosberg in half of the six races this season and would have sat on pole at Monaco if it were not for a grid penalty. If you look at the qualifying performances of the two Mercedes drivers they have been evenly matched.
Rosberg averages 5th position on the starting grid, with Schumacher 6th. That figure is slightly misleading as it includes an 18th position at Bahrain, when Schumacher’s DRS wasn’t functioning. Take that out of the equation and the 7-time world champion averages a starting position of 3.8.
In the betting, the bookmakers are consistently pricing up Rosberg shorter than his rival but in terms of pace there is very little between them. I’m tempted to back Schumacher at 14/1 (Betfred) for the race win, but victories seems to have been apportioned by a lucky dip method so far this season and a punt on a top-6 finish is considerably less risky.
In this derivative market Michael Schumacher is still overpriced at 11/10 (Paddy Power) for a top-6 finish.