Belgian GP Tips: Over 19 Finishers

The Belgian GP is traditionally one of the most exciting races in the F1 calendar but more cars finish the race than you would think. The value this weekend is backing more than 19 classified drivers at 5/6 with Bet365. Some simple maths can prove why.

We can do this by comparing the number of finishers at the Belgian GP with the season’s average over the last five years.

2007-2011 Classified Drivers
Belgian GP: 64/86 (74%)
Season’s Average:  961/1328 (72%)

As you can see, the Belgian GP is almost exactly on the season’s average; Spa-Francorchamps might produce exciting racing but that doesn’t equate to fewer finishers.

2012 Classified Drivers
Belgian GP: ?
Season’s Average:  223/260 (86%)

Pundits keep telling us how F1 cars are more reliable than ever and this is borne out in the figures. On average 86% of the cars that start are classified as finishers. If Spa continues to be average, and the track hasn’t changed to suggest otherwise, then we would expect 20.6 cars to finish the race.

Bet365 have set their spread one car too low at 19. Therefore, the value is backing over 19 classified drivers at 5/6 (Bet365).