X Factor Dissected: The Bottom Two Bounce

An appearance in the X Factor sing-off, particularly in the early weeks of the live shows, is clearly not a good omen for success. It means that at that particular moment in time, you are one of the two least popular acts in the competition, and it’s a long road back from there. Indeed, no act has ever gone from the bottom two to X Factor winner.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom. A sojourn in the sing-off hasn’t stopped some big acts from going on to bigger and better things. In 2008 JLS sang for survival in Week 7 but went on to finish second in the final. The following year Olly Murs did exactly the same thing.

From a betting perspective, history would suggest that almost nobody is immune from the bottom two as public opinion can change quickly, making long shots enticing. But just as favourites can suddenly find themselves in jeopardy, seemingly hopeless cases can have a revival. Let’s look at the phenomenon of the ‘Bottom Two Bounce.’

Now that we have the benefit of voting figures for the past few years it’s possible to see how some acts go from zero to hero and back again in next to no time. This is how Rachel Adedeji fared in 2009.

Week 1: 11th (bottom 2 - saved)
Week 2: 10th (bottom 2 - saved)
Week 3: 1st
Week 4: 9th (bottom 2 - eliminated)

Remarkably, after a fortnight teetering on the edge, public sympathy, or the love of the underdog, swept Rachel briefly to the top of the rankings before she immediately sunk again.

The same ‘bounce’ was apparent in 2010, this time with the divisive character of Katie Wessell.

Week 1: 15th (bottom 2 - saved)
Week 2: 8th
Week 3: 8th
Week 4: 10th (bottom 2 - saved)
Week 5: 10th (bottom 2 - saved)
Week 6: 8th
Week 7: 2nd
Week 8: 7th (bottom 2 - eliminated)

She ranked 15th of 15 in Week 1 and survived. Then there was a mini-bounce, before the public suddenly got right behind her for one night only in Week 7. Again, as with Rachel, this surge was actually the beginning of the end. So we can see that dramatic bottom two bounces tend to be short-lived.

In 2011, our comeback king was Frankie Cocozza. Another controversial figure, he ranked 11th in the first week of proper voting only to be saved by the judges. After that he was never in the bottom two again, despite some increasingly dubious performances. Who knows what would have happened had he not been ejected for ‘external activities.’

So what can we learn for 2012 in terms of elimination and bottom two betting? Well for one thing the public are likely to cast their net pretty wide. In 2010 and 2011 there were no repeat acts in the sing-offs in any of the first three weeks of voting. Now that trend has continued in 2012 with Rylan escaping a fortnight ago and District 3 following suit last weekend. The phenomenon of the ‘bottom two bounce’ remains alive and well!

With that in mind we’d be well-advised to keep a close eye on the acts who are yet to be in a sing-off but don’t appear to have significant fan bases either. The pair that leap off the page are:

Christopher Maloney:
Bottom Two odds: 9/4 (Sportingbet). Elimination odds: 15/4 (Sportingbet)

Jade Ellis:
Bottom Two odds: 11/4 (PaddyPower). Elimination odds: 8/1 (Ladbrokes).