Wimbledon Tip: Men's Singles Winner

The men’s tournament promises to be one of the most exciting in years with at least three players for whom a case for outright favouritism could be made. First up, we have the six-time champion Roger Federer. Grass is his natural habitat, and nobody would dispute that; he has won more of his 16 Grand Slams on this surface than any other. As we stand on Day 1, he is the narrowest of favourites to make it 17 at 23/10 with sportingbet. But my doubts, sadly, all surround the passing of time that effects even the very greatest in this sport. He used to win Wimbledon every year, but since 2007 has only done so once, and tellingly then Rafa Nadal was absent through injury.

The Spaniard has triumphed on his last two visits to SW19 and finds himself a best price of 13/5 with sportingbet. He recently won at Roland Garros for the sixth time which could easily give him an air of invincibility. But that Paris triumph doesn’t tell the whole story. Nadal laboured in the early stages of the French Open and found his dominance of red clay called into question in the weeks prior to the main event on that surface. The man who made him look vulnerable, Novak Djokovic, is my tip for the Wimbledon crown at 4/1 with WilliamHill.

As is well-documented, the Serb has only lost one tennis match on any surface in the entirety of 2011. Had he kept that run going right through to Wimbledon then I have little doubt that he would be the short-price favourite at this point. So is a semi-final defeat to Federer on clay a good reason to underplay a 43-match unbeaten run? Clearly not. He destroyed the Swiss in straight sets en route to an emphatic win at the Australian Open and has been the better player ever since. Paris looks like nothing more than a blip.

It’s not just Federer who should be worried. Djokovic has won four consecutive finals against Nadal, including the last two on clay - the world number one’s favourite surface. That top ranking could belong to the Serb in a fortnight’s time and at 4/1 he should be snapped up. Novak’s one defeat of the season will have focused his mind. He comes to Wimbledon rested, re-focused and as a likely winner.