Women's Wimbledon Tip: Victoria Azarenka

I never understood why the bookies lost all faith in Maria Sharapova to the extent where we were able to take her as a 35/1 each-way shot for the Australian Open.  Now, just six months later she is number one in the world and the 14/5 (Sportingbet) favourite for Wimbledon.

The Russian lost in the Melbourne final but we were handsomely paid out anyway with almost every firm offering half odds if your player finished as runner-up. That day Sharapova lost to Victoria Azarenka; now she is the best value option at 9/1 (BetVictor) to win at SW19.

The Belarusian became number one in the world after that success in January and only lost that status after Sharapova won in Paris last month. Up until then it was Azarenka who was regarded as a short-price favourite for Wimbledon. I think the market’s totally over-reacted to their contrasting fortunes on clay which will count for very little over the next fortnight.

The evidence would suggest that there is very little between the world’s top two. Azarenka actually leads the head-to-head 5-4 against Sharapova and has won their only two clashes of 2012. They both lost to Kvitova at Wimbledon last year but it was Azarenka who took a set off the eventual champion in the semi-finals.

Incidentally, it would be a surprise if Kvitova (13/2 Coral) repeated her triumph having failed to kick-on as much as she would have liked in the past 12 months. Furthermore, it feels like pot luck trying to predict whether Serena Williams (3/1 Bet365) can play to a high standard consistently for two weeks.

I’m left in little doubt that Sharapova and Azarenka deserve to be regarded as the main favourites with the divergence in price making the latter the right choice. If we take the 9/1 with Betvictor as an each-way bet then we will still get paid out at half odds if she makes the final. The seedings ensure that she can’t face Sharapova before that point so all the omens are good.