3rd Jul 2011 | Wimbledon

Wimbledon Men’s Final Tip: Novak Djokovic

Nole Nole

The Serb should be favourite for the match, opening up a huge range of value bets.

I’ll cut to the chase – why isn’t Novak Djokovic favourite to win Wimbledon? He is 11/8 to win the final, with Rafael Nadal 4/6 favourite. Surely, these odds are the wrong way round.

Whatever happens in today’s final, the Serb will move to number one in the world. This is mainly down to a phenomenal season where he has won 47 games and lost only once.

The more important statistic is that Djokovic has won all four head to heads with Nadal in 2011. These include two straight sets wins in Madrid and Rome on clay; a surface where the Spaniard is almost invincible.

The more you look at it, the more ludicrous the current prices are. Having already tipped Djokovic at 4/1 to win Wimbledon, there is little point in backing him at shorter odds.  Set betting is the area to focus on.

A derivative of the outright prices, all the odds in this market still favour Nadal. A 3-1 win for Djokovic at 9/2 is tempting but I’m going to be bolder and plump for a straights set victory. With the betting public expecting a close fought match, a 3-0 score line has drifted to 7/1 with Betfred. The last two meetings between have ended in straight sets and it could be more of the same.

Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:05 3rd Jul, 2011 but subject to change

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