31st Jan 2013 | Six Nations
Six Nations Tips: Lowest Scoring Game
Italy are regarded as the whipping boys but they are involved in more low scoring games than you’d think.
Apart from the inevitable wooden spoon decider, Italy are written off from a betting perspective for the 6 Nations. Quotes of 500/1 (Stan James) to win the tournament are a fair reflection of their chances, however the bookmakers have left some fat in their derivative markets because of their low expectations.
In the last five years, Italy’s home matches have yielded on average 38.6 points per game, this compares favourably with the 38.8 points per game tournament average. That suggests Italy aren’t quite the whipping boys many assume, especially in Rome.
Go back over the last 10 years and Italy have been involved in five of the tournament’s lowest scoring matches, only England have been involved in more, with six.
Low scoring games in Rome are much more likely than the bookmakers think. Last season Italy v Scotland was the joint lowest scoring game and in 2011, Italy v Ireland was the lowest scoring game.
Italy host three matches in the upcoming 6 Nations and all three are double figure odds to be the lowest scoring match. France, Wales and Ireland are the visitors and of the three I’m particularly taken by the Italy v Ireland match.
Played on the last weekend of the tournament, there might be little incentive for Ireland, with potential championships or Grand Slams already scuppered. If motivation or fitness flags, it could become a flat encounter. At 22/1 (Skybet) the value is to back Italy v Ireland being the lowest scoring game of the 6 Nations.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 15:17 31st Jan, 2013 but subject to change
