France v Ireland Tip: Man of the Match

It is difficult to find any value in the traditional markets for the France v Ireland game this weekend. France are rightly favourites and with home advantage it’s hard to see them losing. Ireland are a best price 3/1 (BetVictor) to win in Paris and those odds are hardly worthy of what would be deemed a big upset.

Eschewing the win market and its derivates, the best place for value is the man of the match betting. This might seem like a spurious bet but there is logic. These are the awards given out this season:

Fra v Ita: Julien Malzieu (winger)
Sco v Eng: David Denton (No.8)
Ire v Wal: Mike Phillips (Scrum-half)
Ita v Eng: Sergio Parisse (No.8)
Wal v Sco: Dan Lydiate (No.6)
Ire v Ita: Johnathan Secton (Fly-half)
Eng v Wal: Sam Warburton (No.7)
Sco v Fra: Ross Rennie (No.7)

The first thing to notice is that five of the man of the match accolades went to a player on the winning side. The three awards in a losing cause went to Scottish players (twice) and an Italian, all heroic performances in defeat. France should win the game but Ireland don’t quite fall into the ‘plucky underdog’ category, and therefore it is unlikely one of their team will win.

Delve further into the trends and you notice that all the winners played a full 80 minutes apart from Dan Lydiate who lasted 73min. Back-row forwards also dominate the award, winning 50% of the time. Other than perhaps the half-backs, these players are conspicuous in their roles, a big advantage when gongs are been dished out.

That leaves us looking for a French half-back or back row player who lasts the majority of the game. These are the candidates:

10.François Trinh-Duc 17/2 BetVictor
9. Morgan Parra 9/1 BetVictor
8. Imanol Harinordoquy 10/1 BetVictor
7. Julien Bonnaire 14/1 BetVictor
6. Thierry Dusautoir 8/1 Boylesports

Harinordoquy rarely manages to last the full 80min and with Louis Picamoles waiting on the bench, this is one of the more likely substitutions and therefore he is passed over.

Of the remaining candidates Thierry Dusautoir at 8/1 with Boylesports stands out. He is the 2011 IRB International Player of the Year and leads from the front. Competing against Ireland’s famed back-row of Jamie Heaslip, Sean O’Brien and Stephen Ferris the breakdown is where the game will be won or lost. With all eyes focused on this area, a big performance from the French captain should see him win the man of the match award.