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24th Dec 2012 | Football

Big Wins Flatter Liverpool & Chelsea

We examine the stats to see if the scorelines were a fair reflection on the Premier League matches this weekend.

Using the criteria set out in our ‘Shots On Target’ feature, each week we will analyse the recent set of Premier League fixtures to see if the scorelines were a fair reflection of the games. Using ‘shots on target’ rather than goals as out key metric, we hope to discover matches that didn’t produce a ‘fair’ scoreline given the balance of play.

22/23 December 2012
shots on target 22 Dec 12
Source: whoscored.com
Negative numbers = away team supremacy

Villa suffer freak result
The standout result from the weekend was Chelsea’s 8-0 thrashing of Aston Villa. The win was fully deserved but the scoreline was harsh on Aston Villa. From 15 shots on target Chelsea scored 8 times, normally you would expect them to only score 4 from a similar number of chances. Aston Villa are 31/10 (BetVictor) to win their next game at home to Tottenham and I’d be wary of an overreaction on the basis on one freak game.

Everton worthy of their win
Everton beat West Ham by the slenderest of margins but were good value for their victory. Of the teams playing away from home this weekend, their 7 shots on target was matched only by Manchester United. In their current rich vein of form they look a fair bet at 8/15 (BetVictor) to beat Wigan in their next game.

Fulham slump should end soon
Fulham were comprehensively beaten at Anfield but they created enough chances to have left with at least a consolation goal. Based on shots on target a 3-1 defeat would have been a fairer result. Considering the number of chances they create, a run of 3 goals in 6 games should come to end against Southampton on Boxing Day, with Dimitar Berbatov an attractive 11/8 (BetVictor) anytime goalscorer bet.

Aston Villa to win 31/10 with BetVictor
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 11:39 24th Dec, 2012 but subject to change

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