Salisbury Draw Bias: 6f

21st May 2013 | Horse Racing

Salisbury six furlong draw bias

Track: Salisbury
Distance: 6f
Stalls: Low

Summary: Stalls 1-4 are at a slight disadvantage.

Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)
salisbury 6f draw bias
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0

To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.

Conclusion: Despite having the rail to race against a low draw is a slight disadvantage. The sample size is too small to draw any firm conclusions about being drawn in stall 14 or above.

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Tips & Advice

Sandown Tips: Elusivity

Soft ground lover who wasn’t beaten far in a Group 3 over course and distance two years ago. Performances this season suggest he retains ability.

Lingfield Tips: Expose

Capable of running sub-22s for the final two furlongs and with plenty of pace in the field the race could set up for him.

Epsom Tips: Huntsmans Close

Not beaten far in competitive handicap at Goodwood despite suffering minor interference. Has won on heavy ground.

Epsom Tips: Lady Gibraltar

Visor back on after a couple of excusable efforts. Previous course and distance winner and wasn’t beaten far in the Dash.

York Tips: Accepted

His sire won the race in 2010 and given the way he overcame unfavourable conditions at Tipperary he could make it a family double.

Ebor Tips: Ted Veale

Favourite for the race 12 months ago and although his National Hunt form has tailed off over fences he’s got the fast ground he needs.

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