Salisbury Draw Bias: 6f

21st May 2013 | Horse Racing

Salisbury six furlong draw bias

Track: Salisbury
Distance: 6f
Stalls: Low

Summary: Stalls 1-4 are at a slight disadvantage.

Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)
salisbury 6f draw bias
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0

To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.

Conclusion: Despite having the rail to race against a low draw is a slight disadvantage. The sample size is too small to draw any firm conclusions about being drawn in stall 14 or above.

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Tips & Advice

Market Movers: Humour

Humour finished strongly over course and distance last week. With a strong pace and a run under his belt he's fancied to go close in the 7.20 Wolverhampton.

Doncaster Tips: Fairway To Heaven

Guilty of several lacklustre this season but we saw a glimmer of his talents when he won impressively at Windsor. Given one last chance from a good draw.

Kempton Tips: Ganymede

Has won two of his last three starts including over course and distance. Stall 1 is ideal for his front-running style.

Kempton Tips: Exchequer

Almost returned with a win at Newmarket, losing in a head-bob after a 167-day absence. Finished second to Kingston Hill as a juvenile.

Pontefract Tips: Augusta Ada

Would have won her last start in class 2 company if she’d had a stronger pace to chase. Drops down in grade this afternoon.

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