Salisbury Draw Bias: 6f

21st May 2013 | Horse Racing

Salisbury six furlong draw bias

Track: Salisbury
Distance: 6f
Stalls: Low

Summary: Stalls 1-4 are at a slight disadvantage.

Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)
salisbury 6f draw bias
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0

To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.

Conclusion: Despite having the rail to race against a low draw is a slight disadvantage. The sample size is too small to draw any firm conclusions about being drawn in stall 14 or above.

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Recent Winners

Tips & Advice

Kempton Tips: Fairway To Heaven

Talented sprinter who has hidden his light under a bushel. Impressive winner at Windsor but then injured at Ripon and tacky ground didn’t suit at York.

Nottingham Tips: Oldjoesaid

Record in class 5 turf handicaps is 1116 with defeat caused by a combination of a modest gallop and fast ground; completely different conditions today.

Wolverhampton Tips: Danzoe

Has been finishing his races well and likely strong pace from two potential short-runners plays into his hands.

Market Movers: Yamllik

Frederik Tylicki has a 34% strike rate (12-35) for Saeed bin Suroor this year and Yamllik has the benefit of a run under his belt.

Doncaster Tips: Kickboxer

Needs an end-to-end gallop over the minimum trip but that looks likely and he’s perfectly drawn to get a tow into the race.

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