Salisbury Draw Bias: 6f

21st May 2013 | Horse Racing

Salisbury six furlong draw bias

Track: Salisbury
Distance: 6f
Stalls: Low

Summary: Stalls 1-4 are at a slight disadvantage.

Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)
salisbury 6f draw bias
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0

To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.

Conclusion: Despite having the rail to race against a low draw is a slight disadvantage. The sample size is too small to draw any firm conclusions about being drawn in stall 14 or above.

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Featured Tips

Featured Tips

Tips & Advice

Market Movers: Flash Fire

Flash Fire only won a class 5 maiden last time out but he beat an expensive Godolphin juvenile and the third placed horse was 7 lengths back. It's probably smart form which explains the market move in the 3.30 Goodwood.

Meritocracy At Kempton

Record at Kempton is 3113 and can turn around the form with Taquka given a soft lead.

Leicester Tips: Smokethatthunders

Ran well on his first start for James Unett overcoming a pace and draw bias to finish second at Chester. Drops down a grade this afternoon.

Sandown Tips: Elusivity

Soft ground lover who wasn’t beaten far in a Group 3 over course and distance two years ago. Performances this season suggest he retains ability.

Lingfield Tips: Expose

Capable of running sub-22s for the final two furlongs and with plenty of pace in the field the race could set up for him.


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