21st May 2013 | Horse Racing
Summary: Stalls 1-4 are at a slight disadvantage.
Moving Average: Actual v Expected wins (2008 to 2012)
Graph depicts number of actual wins above or below expected number of wins, when taking into account bookmaker margin. E.g. If a horse raced 10 times from stall one, each time with an SP of 9/1, you would expect 1 winner and the difference between actual & expected wins = 0
To get around the problem of a small sample size, I have used a moving average. This groups together adjacent stalls (two either side) as a block.
Conclusion: Despite having the rail to race against a low draw is a slight disadvantage. The sample size is too small to draw any firm conclusions about being drawn in stall 14 or above.