Royal Ascot Tips: Reckless Abandon

The horses in the 2.30 Ascot are lightly raced two-year-olds, but even in their short careers they will have come across the same problems that withered old-sprinters contend with, namely draw and pace bias.

Reckless Abandon was an impressive two-length winner on his debut, but his run needs marking up as he triumphed against Doncaster’s draw bias.

If we concentrate on the first eight home that day, you will see that horses drawn low were disadvantaged if we analyse their next runs.

On average, horses drawn high improved 8lbs on their next outing, according to the Racing Post’s Ratings. Those drawn in single figures improved 15lbs on average, suggesting they were heavily disadvantaged at Doncaster.

Starbotton improved a massive 30lbs to win his next start at odds of 28/1 having raced from stall 5. Monkey Bar Flies didn’t improve on his next run, but he got quite worked up in the preliminaries and probably didn’t show his true colours.

If Reckless Abandon improved 15lbs from his last run that would suggest he could run to a rating of 106. That is good enough to win the race, with the last five winners earning an RPR of 106 or 107. At 7/1 (Ladbrokes) he is overpriced.

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