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19th Jun 2012 | Royal Ascot

King’s Stand Tips: Caledonia Lady

Looks well drawn and has run much better than the bare form suggests.

A huge field lines-up for the King’s Stand Stakes at 3.05 and with so many runners the draw could prove crucial. I don’t believe there is an inherent draw bias at Ascot but, especially in sprints, you want to be drawn near the pace.

Looking at our pace chart, there is a strong chance the field could split, with the break probably coming around stall 13. This is where the race could be decided.

If Bated Breath and Ortensia race up the middle of the track, chasing Tangerine Trees, their chances could be scuppered. I think the stronger pace will be in the stand’s side group. Masamah (drawn 18) and Stone of Folca (drawn 21) will carry their pack further into the race, whereas Tangerine Trees has underperformed at Ascot in the past.

Having decided that high numbers hold sway, it narrows down the potential contenders and the horse I like is – Caledonia Lady.

At 66/1 (William Hill) the bookmakers have written her off, but she has performed much better than recent results suggest. Last time out at York she just pulled too hard; the small field crawled along for the first 2.5 furlongs and the run is best ignored. Previously she finished a close 6th in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket.

Squeezed out at the start, she gave the field a couple of lengths head-start only to be hampered when trying to make up ground. She was also disadvantaged by racing on the stand’s side. The first three home were all drawn in single figures, leaving her marooned in stall 15.

The tables have turned at Ascot, with Caledonia Lady drawn next to the strong pace she craves. She placed twice as a juvenile at the track, both times in Group company, and although only 3-years-old she gets a useful weight allowance. At 66/1 (William Hill) she is massively overpriced.

*Best Odds Guaranteed – William Hill
Back Caledonia Lady with William Hill as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.

2pts Caledonia Lady to win 66/1 with William Hill
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 09:00 19th Jun, 2012 but subject to change