Pace Bias At Newmarket July Meeting

Pace biases can be notoriously difficult to track down, when racecourses only stage six races per meeting we have little data to go on. However, something peculiar was going on at Newmarket during their July Festival.

Of the 22 races staged at the track between 9-11 July, ten races were won by horses leading with 2/3 furlongs to go. At a high quality meeting that seems strange, so I dug a little deeper.

Source: Timeform

Using sectional data provided by Timeform the picture is even more startling. In the 22 races at the festival, horses leading at the 2/3f pole beat 78% of their rivals.

Out of the 22 individual winners, 18 were within 0.7 lengths of the lead at the 2f or 3f marker. Unfortunately, I don’t have enough data to compare this to other meetings at the July course but it seems high.

Horses on or near the pace at Newmarket seemed to enjoy an advantage during the July Festival. This might have been because of the fast ground, a tailwind or some other factor that unfortunately the clerk of the course or BHA neglected to mention.

As the weeks pass it will be fascinating to see how the form holds up. If there was a pace bias at play then those making ground from off the pace deserve to have thier runs upgraded.

Horses who made up 3 or more lengths in the final 2/3f:
GREAT PARK (IRE)
OUTER SPACE
ONE WORD MORE (IRE)
MANAAFIDH (IRE)
FUNDING DEFICIT (IRE)
MITRAAD (IRE)
DAL HARRAILD
BLUE BAYOU