Newmarket July Course Pace Profile

Yesterday we examined whether there was a pace bias at Newmarket’s July Course during the July Festival (9-11 July) but before we draw any further conclusions we need to establish a performance baseline.

There had been 35 races prior the July Festival and although the sample size is small it provides a useful comparison.

Source: Timeform

Comparing the two sets of data makes for interesting reading. Leaders at the sectional marker (2f or 3f pole) were beaten on average by 1.76l during the July Festival but 6.36l at the ‘other’ meetings.

There was also a stark difference in the percentage of rivals beaten 78% v 56% and on average the winners raced a length closer to the pace.

The small data caveat is worth mentioning again but it appears there was a bias during the July Festival that favoured horses leading or near the lead two/three furlongs from the finishing line.