Newcastle Tips: Valery Borzov

After being deluged with 40mm of rain on Thursday, racing at Newcastle goes ahead. Understandably, the official going is heavy and that plays a crucial role in our analysis. Quite simply, if you are backing a horse at Newcastle today it has to handle the ground.

In the 2.45 the markets have already started to adjust, with the mudlarks being backed, but the only horse in the field who has won on heavy ground is Valery Borzov. A 6f specialist, he seems to relish testing conditions and that is born out in his Racing Post Ratings.

Last 10 RPRs on ground described as ‘good to soft’ or softer, 6f only:

108-97-108-101-96-76-96-73-98-89
Average: 94.2

Last 10 RPRs on ground no worse than ‘good’, 6f only:

79-97-91-71-87-57-89-59-76-65
Average: 77.1

According to these ratings, Valery Borzov is on average 17.1lbs better in soft conditions, that is equivalent to almost 5 lengths.

The figures also offer a note of caution. At 8-years-old, Valery Borzov isn’t the horse he was three years ago, when hitting RPRs in the hundreds. However, if he can run to a mark in the mid-90s it could be enough to win, with the better horses liable to run below par in the ground. At 12/1 (Bet365) he is worth the risk.

*Best Odds Guaranteed – Bet365
Back Valery Borzov with Bet365 as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.

4/1 Winner Special - Bet365
If you back a winner of a live Channel 4 or BBC race at odds of 4/1 or greater then Bet365 will give you a free bet to the same stake (max. £50) on the next televised race.