Just The Tonic

The 4.20 Lingfield features several in-form horses near the top of the market but purely on price they cannot be backed.

Ghost Train has been running some good speed ratings for the grade but he curls up if hit with the whip and a strike rate of 3-47 is not good news. New Rich has also shaped like a winner in waiting but the majority of his victories have come at Kempton (4-16), whilst he is yet to trouble the judge at Lingfield (0-6).

With the top-two in the market accounted for we can make a riskier play with Autumn Tonic.

Last time out he was well beaten but that was in a higher grade, go back another start and there is some encouragement. Again in a higher grade, he endured a horrendous trip clipping heels 2f out and finding more trouble in the home straight. He clocked a respectable 22.7s closing sectional, the fourth fastest in a steadily run race but would have done much better granted a clear run.

Back down in grade this afternoon, the last time he attempted this trip he was sent off the 7/4 favourite, a fraction of today’s 14/1 (Paddy Power).

Jim Crowley is a positive booking with a 26% strike rate (11-43) for Simon Down on the all-weather and first time blinkers might also have a positive impact.