Folkestone Tip: Toms River Tess

For a class 6 handicap the 2.45 Folkestone is a fascinating race. There is an incredibly strong draw bias on the sprint track at Folkestone, especially at 5f where there isn’t the time to overcome a bad starting position.

The highest five stalls usually enjoy a strong advantage over the field. The conundrum, however, is the worst horses fill the best stalls. But in my opinion none of the horses drawn 1-7 are so much better that they can overcome the draw bias. Therefore, I’m left to pick from the worst horses with the best draw.

Bookiesindex Boy has the plum draw, stall 12/12 but he is 0/31 on turf and has to be ignored. Avonvalley is next best in gate 11 but tends to blow the start thus negating any advantage she may have enjoyed.

Of the rest the only horse I can make a case for is Toms River Tees. She has a terrible strike rate of 1/21 but this is only her second start at 5f. You can argue she is therefore unexposed at the distance. On a positive note, the last time she ran over the minimum trip she earned one of her better speed ratings from me.

She looked in reasonable form when finishing third at the track 12 days ago, showing bright early pace before fading. That was over 7f and with 2f less to travel she might just cling on at 16/1 (Paddy Power).

Note - Toms River Tees is also entered in the 3.45 Folkestone but will only run in one of the two races. Back her only if she runs in the 2.45.

*Best Odds Guaranteed – Paddy Power
Back Toms River Tees with Paddy Power as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.