3rd Jun 2017 | Horse Racing
Epsom Tips: George Bowen
Fast finishing sixth last year but better drawn and 12lbs lower in the handicap.
A 6f sprint rounds off the Derby Day card and if it’s been a bad day, this is the last race you want to bet in. However, I think there is an angle to exploit. Eight of the last ten winners have been drawn in stall 10 or lower and although this is basic analysis it makes sense if you consider they run around a left-hand bend, with stall 1 on the inside.
If we extend this process a little further to include placed horses (top-4) then 32/40 of the placed horses were drawn in stalls 10 or lower. That equates to 80%, when you would expect a number nearer 63% assuming average fields of 16 runners.
Twelve months ago, George Bowen was sent off 6/1 co-favourite from stall 11 and from a better draw in stall 6, I really like his chances.
His form coming into the race isn’t nearly as strong but that is reflected in his mark of 86, a full 12lbs lower than last year but he’s shown glimpses of ability.
Connections experimented with a change of tactics at York, racing him more prominently in first time headgear. He did too much in front on rain softened ground but it was a fair performance and he was only beaten 3.25 lengths, with a speed rating of 87 after adjusting for pace.
Odds correct at time of publishing: 06:36 3rd Jun, 2017 but subject to change