Gold Cup Tip: Kauto Star

The Gold Cup (3.20) is a race full of emotion; old favourites return to do battle year after year and it is hard not to let the heart rule the head. Listening to the hype there are a couple of points I take issue with and they help to create value in the market.

Undoubtedly, all the talk tomorrow will be about Kauto Star but one of the first things that will crop up will be his age.  People will say that at 12, he is too old to win a Gold Cup. Frankly, that is a meaningless statistic. I’m sure people would have said it was impossible to win the King George five times. But he did. Kauto Star has re-written the rule book throughout his career and can do so again.

Now we have dealt with the elephant in the room, let’s judge him on form. His two wins this season earned him Topspeed ratings of 158 & 151, several pounds better than what he produced in the 2010/11 season. It is safe to say he was below par back then; Paul Nicholls thinks it was a breathing issue that has since cleared up.

He is however, not the horse of 2008/09 when he was regularly hitting speed figures in the low 170s. The important question is whether his current form is good enough to win the Gold Cup – and the answer is yes.

Long Run has looked badly below par this season, his jumping has regressed and he would have been beaten by Burton Port in another 100 yards at Newbury. I’d be concerned with that run because if his forte is stamina, it patently wasn’t on display.

Beyond Long Run the Gold Cup is lacking strength in depth. The likes of Burton Port, Diamond Harry and Weird Al look slightly fragile and have not stood much racing in the last couple of years, making them difficult to predict.

As for Kauto Star’s fall, I’m happy to trust Paul Nicholls that he wouldn’t run the horse if he wasn’t 100% right. I’m sure there are dozens of horses who have had falls in the build up to a big race. We just never hear about them.

I concede Kauto Star isn’t quite as good as he once was, but he doesn’t need to be. He just needs to be better than the opposition. In what looks a weak renewal, he is the best horse on current form.

On race day the public are sure to latch onto their hero, so take the 4/1 (Betfred) now before his price contracts.

*Best Odds Guaranteed – Betfred
Back Kauto Star with Betfred as they are best price and offer Best Odds Guaranteed. If the starting price (SP) is bigger than the current price, you get paid at the bigger SP.