Fred Winter Tips: Azza

With several bookmakers going non-runner no bet for all races at the Cheltenham Festival we can make an antepost selection with very little downside, especially when a horse holds multiple entries.

Azza is entered for the Fred Winter and Triumph Hurdle but the latter looks beyond her capabilities so expect David Pipe to exploit her lenient handicap mark in the Fred Winter (12 March; 4.40 Cheltenham).

A Listed winner in Auteuil, she has some smart form to her name and I can understand why David Pipe bought her. She is a half-sister to Vieux Lion Rouge, an exciting unbeaten hurdler in the same yard.

After a facile victory in a Carlisle conditions race, she was upped in grade for the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham. She couldn’t live with the first two but she finished a respectable third, 5-lengths ahead of Abracadabra Sivola, who is actually shorter in the Fred Winter betting.

Triumph Hurdle Trial Sectionals

The sectionals of the race show Azza couldn’t sustain the strong gallop and tired badly from two out. Her finishing speed of 90.1% is well below the par of 98.5% and is similar in relative terms to the pace collapse witnessed in last year’s Champion Hurdle.

Azza’s sub-optimal sectionals weren’t down to jockey error, it’s more likely she couldn’t match the speed of better horses.

That is a slight concern but the very best are likely to reroute to the Triumph Hurdle, leaving the Fred Winter significantly weakened from its current antepost position.

If Azza can spread her energy more evenly she will improve on her last performance and that makes her a good each-way bet at 25/1 (Bet365) with ¼ odds for at top-4 finish.

NRNB & BOG - Bet365
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