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11th Mar 2015 | Cheltenham Festival

Champion Chase Trials By Time

Special Tiara stands out in trial

We revisit the results of the Champion Chase trials by using sectional time analysis.

Carrying on from our analysis of the Champion Hurdle trials, we have put the Champion Chase trials under the sectional microscope.

The premise revolves around timing sections of the race, usually the final 2f/3f and seeing how this influences the overall time.

Champion Chase Trials
champion chase trials sectionals

Before we analyse the times it is worth pointing out some caveats. National Hunt data is notoriously unreliable, races aren’t run over the advertised distances, obstacles move, and there are few signposts to time from.  For example, our Punchestown finishing speeds look extremely dubious.

Sprinter Sacre is back – to some extent
Sprinter Sacre recorded a Topspeed rating of 156 on his return to action at Ascot, not far below his best of 165 recorded in the 2012 Champion Chase.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to beat Dodging Bullets and there weren’t any obvious excuses, other than his long lay-off.

The race was run at a solid gallop (98% finishing speed) and the form looks reliable. Sprinter Sacre will have to improve to beat Dodging Bullets, but the market has them the other way round in the betting.

Special Tiara Shines
Special Tiara put in a career best to win the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton and it’s a performance that deserves a hefty upgrade.

Barry Geraghty set a blistering gallop on Special Tiara and I’d argue he went too fast on soft ground. From 3 out he came home in 40.6s, which is 93.8% of the average race speed and indicates a horse slowing down and getting tired.

Special Tiara did extremely well to keep going and beat Balder Succes (a winner on his next 2 starts) by 2.25 lengths.

The better ground will be in his favour at the Festival but the stiff track and stronger pace competition will not.

Nevertheless, his performance deserves an upgrade on what is already an impressive 150 Topspeed rating.

Champion Chase: Special Tiara to win 25/1 with William Hill
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Odds correct at time of publishing: 13:25 11th Mar, 2015 but subject to change

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