30th Sep 2011 | Horse Racing
This tip comes with a health warning. Trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre has stated that Reliable Man’s participation in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is ground dependant and that decision won’t be made until the day of the race. If the warm weather turns the going firm then he will not run. For that reason I would advise waiting until the day before backing him, or bet with a bookmaker going non-runner no bet. That way if he is declared a non-runner you get your money back.
Now the case why he will win. Go back to trials day on the 11th September where Sarafina and Reliable Man both won their races, the Prix Foy and Prix Niel respectively. Sarafina clocked a time 0.15 seconds quicker than Reliable Man, but that does not make her the better horse. If you watch both races in parallel, the reason becomes clear.
The sectional times on the video suggest the leader in the Prix Niel reached the 1400m post 0.5 seconds behind the leader of the Prix Foy. That means Reliable Man ran the last 1000m, or five furlongs, 0.35 seconds quicker than Sarafina. If you assume they were the same distance behind the lead horse. An impressive turn of foot considering he was eased down towards the finish.
These sectional times are not official but if you stop the video on 1m33sec, using the Qatar billboard as a marker, Reliable Man and Sarafina are in almost identical positions on the track. Reliable Man is perhaps half a length in front at best.
Stop the race at the finish on 2m36sec and Reliable Man is a length beyond the line with Sarafina’s nose on the winning post. There is at least a length in difference at the finish between the two horses. Using even a rough calculation means Reliable Man closed out the race half a length quicker than Sarafina.
The early pace in the races weren’t wildly different to suggest Reliable Man had more energy left in reserve. I just conclude that he is the quicker horse. At 12/1, he is also three times the price of the favourite. Back Reliable Man at 12/1 with Bet365 who are going Non-Runner No Bet, therefore if the horse doesn’t start you get your money back.