3rd Apr 2022 | The Masters
The Masters Trends
The first major of the year takes place at Augusta. We look at the trends of past winners for pointers.
Rory McIlroy is still chasing a Grand Slam but the competition is as strong as ever. Jordan Spieth has regained the winning thread and could DeChambeau attempt to overpower the course? The plots are numerous.
In what could be a vintage Masters we can narrow down the field by looking at the trends of past winners. With closer inspection four distinct factors come to the fore:
Made the cut last year
Over the last 11 years, Patrick Reed was the first who did not make the cut the year before they won their Masters. No debutant has won since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Top-60 on tour for scoring average
Adjusted scoring average is a good measure of quality and the cream usually rises to the top at Augusta. 14 of the last 15 winners (no PGA Tour data for Danny Willett) ranked inside the top-60 on tour for this metric.
Top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee to green
Perhaps the most important statistic relating to Augusta. The last 14 winners (Willett excluded, no data) ranked inside the top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee to green.
Top-60 on tour for strokes gained with approach shots
13 of the last 14 winners (Willett excluded, no data) also ranked inside the top-60 on tour with strokes gained with approaches to the green. Patrick Reed bucked the trend and was ranked 74th when winning in 2018.
Players that fit all four trends (PGA Tour only):
Cameron Smith
Collin Morikawa
Corey Conners
Gary Woodland
Hideki Matsuyama
Joaquin Niemann
Jon Rahm
Justin Thomas
Marc Leishman
Matt Fitzpatrick
Russell Henley
Scottie Scheffler
Shane Lowry
Viktor Hovland
Will Zalatoris
Xander Schauffele
Odds correct at time of publishing: 18:18 3rd Apr, 2022 but subject to change
