To Hole Winning Putt: Patrick Reed

The ‘to hole winning putt’ market might look like a novelty but there’s plenty of value to be had.

On the basis that it’s impossible to split the European and American teams, the winner of this market can be considered random. With 24 possible outcomes, any player at odds of 23/1 or great must be considered a value bet.

With a bit of research we can actually improve our odds further.

Since Nick Faldo’s shambolic arrangement of his singles team, Ryder Cup captains tend to front-load their Sunday singles. In 2008, Nick Faldo was heavily criticised when his best players were left stranded, unable to alter the result from the bottom of the team sheet.

The likes of Justin Rose, Rory McIlory and Ian Poulter are unlikely to sink the winning putt because they will be playing in the early matches on Sunday.

Last three matches to finish in 2012
10th: Peter Hanson v Jason Dufner
11th: Martin Kaymer v Stever Stricker
12th: Francesco Molinari v Tiger Woods

Last three matches to finish in 2010
10th: Edoardo Molinari v Rickie Fowler
11th: Padraig Harrington v Zach Johnson
12th: Graeme McDowell v Hunter Mahan

Apart from G-Mac in 2010, there’s been no obvious tactical placement at the end of the singles. At Medinah you could argue the weak links were sent out last.

Looking at the bookmaker prices they have the field upside down and someone like Patrick Reed is a cracking bet at 33/1 (Bet365) to become an unlikely hero.