Charles Schwab Challenge Trends

The PGA Tour returns to Texas for the re-branded Charles Schwab Challenge (formerly Fort Worth Invitational) at Colonial, a par-70 course of middling difficulty.

The last 18 champions had already won on tour before tasting success at Colonial. It is an event that favours experience.

These are the trends needed to win at Colonial based on the last 12 champions:

Top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee-to-green
Colonial is a course you plot your way around. Ten of the last twelve winners all ranked inside the top-60 on tour for strokes gained tee-to-green.

Top-60 on tour for all-around ranking
Colonial is a good all round test, you need to hit the ball straight, find plenty of greens and putt well. Eleven of the last twelve winners ranked inside the top-60 for the tour’s all-around ranking.

Top-60 on tour for scoring average
On his way to victory in 2011, David Toms ranked T2 for birdies and 69th for bogeys. It’s a simple equation; make plenty of birdies and keep dropped shots off the card. Ten of the last twelve winners were all capable of this and ranked in the top-60 on tour for adjusted scoring average.

Top-60 on tour for par-4 scoring
Being a par-70 the bulk of scoring is on par-4s. Nine of the last twelve winners ranked inside the top-60 for this metric.

Top-60 on tour for birdie average
The average winning score of the last 10 years is 14.5-under par; therefore you need to make birdies to win. Jordan Spieth made 22 of them on the way to victory in 2016. 

Players that fit all five trends
Brendan Steele
Bryson DeChambeau
Carlos Ortiz
Daniel Berger
Gary Woodland
Harris English
Jon Rahm
Justin Thomas
Patrick Reed
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Sebastián Muñoz
Sungjae Im
Tony Finau
Webb Simpson
Xander Schauffele